Gas and Oil Reliability(PB)

Gas and Oil Reliability is the first book to apply reliability value improvement practices and process enterprises lifecycle analysis to the oil and gas industry.

Written in a concise and easy to understand language, engineers gain a powerful guide to the most important methods used by software modeling tools which aid in the planning and execution of an effective reliability target for equipment, equipment development, inspection and maintenance programs, system performance analysis, also human factors and safety assessment.

Key Features :

High performance from equipment and personnel while saving time and money

Identifies equipment and procedural problems inherent to oil and gas operations and provides solutions

Combines qualitative and quantitative methods with powerful software modeling tools

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Contents
Preface....... ............................................................................................................................ v
1. Life Cycle Analysis .......................................................................................1
1.1. Quantitative Failure Data Analysis.........................................................................1
1.2. Probability Density Functions...............................................................................12
1.2.1. Exponential PDF...........................................................................................19
1.2.2. Normal PDF .................................................................................................22
1.2.3. Logistic PDF .................................................................................................26
1.2.4. Lognormal PDF.............................................................................................27
1.2.5. Loglogistic PDF.............................................................................................31
1.2.6. Gumbel PDF .................................................................................................33
1.2.7. Weibull PDF..................................................................................................36
1.2.8. Gamma PDF.................................................................................................37
1.2.9. Generalized Gamma PDF.............................................................................40
1.3. How to Define PDF Parameters and Choose Which PDF
Fits Better with the Failure Data...........................................................................43
1.3.1. Plot Method...................................................................................................45
1.3.2. Rank Regression ..........................................................................................48
1.3.3. Maximum Likelihood Method ........................................................................54
1.4. How Reliable Is the Reliability: The Confidence Bound Will Tell You...................56
References...........................................................................................................61
2. Accelerated Test and Reliability Growth Analysis Models..........................63
2.1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................63
2.2. Quantitative Accelerated Tests.............................................................................64
2.2.1. Arrhenius Life-Stress Model..........................................................................67
2.2.2. Eyring Life-Stress Model...............................................................................71
2.2.3. Inverse Power Law Life-Stress Model ..........................................................73
2.2.4. Temperature-Humidity Life-Stress Model......................................................76
2.2.5. Thermal-Nonthermal Life-Stress Model........................................................80
2.2.6. General Loglinear (GLL) Life-Stress Model ..................................................84
2.2.7. Proportional Hazard Life-Stress Model.........................................................87
2.2.8. Cumulative Risk Life-Stress Model...............................................................90
2.3. Qualitative Accelerated Tests (HALT and HASS).................................................93
2.4. Reliability Growth Analysis...................................................................................95
2.4.1. Duanne Model ..............................................................................................96
2.4.2. Crow-Ansaa Model .......................................................................................98
2.4.3. Lloyd-Lipow Model......................................................................................103
2.4.4. Gompertz Model .........................................................................................106
2.4.5. Logistic Model.............................................................................................109
2.4.6. Crow Extended Model .................................................................................111
2.4.7. Power Law Model ....................................................................................... 115
References......................................................................................................... 117
3. Reliability and Maintenance .....................................................................119
3.1. Introduction to Failure Mode Effects Analysis.................................................... 119
3.1.1. Design Failure Mode Effects Analysis.........................................................123
3.1.2. Failure Mode Analysis: Process and Operational Applications...................129
3.2. Reliability Centered on Maintenance .................................................................140
3.3. Risk-Based Inspection .......................................................................................150
3.4. ReBI...................................................................................................................155
3.5. RGBI Analysis....................................................................................................159
3.6. ORT Analysis .....................................................................................................162
References.........................................................................................................166
4. Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability Analysis..................................167
4.1. Introduction to RAM Analysis.............................................................................167
4.1.1. Scope Definition..........................................................................................169
4.1.2. Failure and Repair Data Analysis................................................................170
4.1.3. Modeling and Simulation ............................................................................173
4.1.4. Sensitivity Analysis .....................................................................................177
4.1.5. Conclusions and Reports............................................................................178
4.2. Modeling and Simulation....................................................................................180
4.2.1. RBD Configuration......................................................................................181
4.2.2. Markov Chain Methodology ........................................................................186
4.2.3. Simulation ...................................................................................................189
4.2.4. Reliability and Availability Performance Index ............................................196
4.3. Sensitivity Analysis: Redundancy Policies, Maintenance
Plans, Stock Policies, and Logistics...................................................................204
4.3.1. Redundancy Policies ..................................................................................204
4.3.2. Maintenance Policies..................................................................................209
4.3.3. A General Renovation Process: Kijima Models I and II ............................. 210
4.3.4. Stock Policies .............................................................................................213
4.3.5. Logistics......................................................................................................216
4.4. Improvement Allocation Based on Availability....................................................221
4.5. Case Studies......................................................................................................226
4.5.1. Sensitivity Analysis in Critical Equipment: The Distillation Plant
Case Study in the Brazilian Oil and Gas Industry.......................................227
x | Gas and Oil Reliability Engineering: Modeling and Analysis
4.5.2. Systems Availability Enhancement Methodology:
A Refinery Hydrotreating Unit Case Study..................................................242
4.5.3. The Nonlinear Optimization Methodology Model: The Refinery
Plant Availability Optimization Case Study .................................................254
4.5.4. CENPES II Project Reliability Analysis .......................................................267
4.5.5. The Operational Effects in Availability: Thermal Cracking
Plant RAM Analysis Case Study.................................................................283
4.5.6. Partial Availability Based on System Age:
The Drill Facility System Case Study..........................................................296
4.5.7. High-Performance System Requires Improvements?
Compressor Optimum Replacement Time Case Study ..............................314
4.5.8. RAM+L Analysis: Refinery Case Study.......................................................324
References.........................................................................................................345
5. Human Reliability Analysis.......................................................................345
5.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................345
5.1.1. Human Reliability Concepts........................................................................347
5.2. Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction ......................................................351
5.3. Operator Action Tree..........................................................................................358
5.4. Accident Sequence Evaluation program............................................................360
5.4.1. Pre-Accident Analysis Methodology............................................................361
5.4.2. Post-Accident Analysis Methodology..........................................................369
5.5. Human Error Assessment Reduction Technique ...............................................372
5.6. Social Technical Analysis of Human Reliability..................................................380
5.7. Standardized Plant Analysis Riskd—Human Reliability.....................................383
5.8. Bayesian Networks ............................................................................................390
5.9. Case Study ........................................................................................................393
5.9.1. THERP Case Study Application..................................................................394
5.9.2. OAT Case Study Application.......................................................................395
5.9.3. SPAR-H Case Study Application.................................................................397
5.9.4. HEART Case Study Application..................................................................400
5.9.5. STAH-R Case Study Application.................................................................402
5.9.6. Bayesian Network Application ....................................................................407
5.9.7. Methodologies Similarities ..........................................................................412
5.9.8. Conclusion ..................................................................................................413
References.........................................................................................................418
6. Reliability and Safety Processes...............................................................415
6.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................415
6.2. Fault Tree Analysis.............................................................................................420
6.2.1. Time Independent FTA................................................................................422
6.2.2. Time Dependent FTA..................................................................................425
6.2.3. FTA as Qualitative Risk Analysis Support...................................................429
6.2.4. FTA as a Root Cause Analysis Tool............................................................431
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6.3. Event Tree Analysis ...........................................................................................432
6.3.1. Time Independent Event Tree Analysis ......................................................433
6.3.2. Time Dependent ETA..................................................................................435
6.4. Layers of Protection Analysis.............................................................................438
6.4.1. Independent Time LOPA.............................................................................440
6.4.2. Time Dependent LOPA...............................................................................441
6.4.3. Time Dependent LOPA as Qualitative Risk Analysis Support.....................442
6.5. Safety Integrity Level Analysis ...........................................................................444
6.5.1. Hazard Matrix Methodology........................................................................449
6.5.2. Risk Graph Methodology ............................................................................453
6.5.3. Frequency Target Methodology ..................................................................454
6.5.4. Individual and Societal Risk Methodology ..................................................456
6.5.5. Quantitative Approach to Defining Probability of Failure on Demand.........457
6.6. Bow Tie Analysis................................................................................................460
6.6.1. Time Independent Bow Tie Analysis...........................................................462
6.6.2. Time Dependent Bow Tie Analysis .............................................................464
6.7. Case Study 1: Applying LOPA Analysis to Decide Whether
Risk Is Acceptable When Layers of Protection Are Not Available......................470
6.8. Case Study 2: Using RAMS Analysis Methodology to
Measure Safety Process Effects on System Availability ....................................478
6.8.1. Safety Processes........................................................................................480
6.8.2. RAM Analysis Case Study ..........................................................................481
6.8.3. Conclusions ................................................................................................489
References.........................................................................................................495
7. Reliability Management............................................................................491
7.1. Reliability Management over the Enterprise Life Cycle .....................................493
7.2. Reliability Management Success Factors..........................................................495
7.3. Successful Reliability Engineering Implementation Case Study........................499
7.3.1. Bayer ..........................................................................................................501
7.4. Successful Organization in Reliability Engineer Implementation.......................503
7.4.1. USNRC (United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission)..........................503
7.4.2. ESReDA (European Safety and Reliability and Data Association) .............504
7.4.3. ESRA (European Safety and Reliability Association)..................................505
7.4.4. SINTEF (Stiftelsen for Industriell og Teknisk Forskning).............................505
7.5. Reliability Engineer Teaching and Research: Successful
Universities and Research Center Cases .........................................................506
7.5.1. Karlsruhe Institute Technology....................................................................506
7.5.2. Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur....................................................508
7.5.3. University of Strathclyde Business School..................................................509
7.5.4. University of Stavanger...............................................................................510
7.6. Final Thoughts ...................................................................................................510
References.........................................................................................................518
Index ...........................................................................................................................519
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